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*LATEST*­­

ASSET ALLOCATION VIEW, AUGUST 17, 2010

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Asset And Market Survey ­ ­
Economy - Expected to continue surprising on downside ­
Economic surprise statistics, while still positive overall, continue to d­eteriorate as the rate of negative surprises­ continues to climb in line with the slowdown in the recovery. The Tactical Asset Allocation team believes risk exposures should be reduce because we expect economic data to continue to disappoint in the short term*.


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Global Intelligence, July, 2010

Global Economic Outlook
We believe that U.S. growth will beat Emerging Markets Equity Outlook consensus, that core Europe will pull the continent through its sovereign woes and that China will slow, (more...)

Asset Allocation View, June 14, 2010

Economy - Recovery Decelerating
While many economic indicators continue to surprise on the upside, they are also confirming the deceleration of the recovery. We continue to expect data to deteriorate in the fall as the economic down cycle takes hold. (more...)

Asset Allocation View, May 25, 2010

Asset and Market Survey
Economy -  Global recovery slowing; Europe is the weak link
Global leading indicators are now broadly signaling that the economic recovery, which accelerated in the 11 months through November, is now decelerating as we appear to be in the early stages of a down cycle. Economies continue to improve, but comparisons with year-earlier data are looking less favorable. (more...)

Asset Allocation View, May 11, 2010

Asset and Market Survey
Economy - Recovery intact, but slowing
The global economic recovery remains intact, but is slowing, as shown by leading indicators virtually worldwide. In the short term*, continued weak job creation has emerged as the biggest risk because of the critical direct link between consumer spending and jobs. The United States is seeing robust hiring in the manufacturing sector, but the overall impact is muted because services account for 70% of U.S. GDP. (more..)

Asset Allocation View, April 27, 2010

Asset and Market Survey
Economy -  Recovery flagging in Europe and Asia, still strong in US
Leading indicators show the cyclical recovery continuing, but suggest the momentum of the recovery is flagging in Europe, China and elsewhere in emerging Asia. In the US, inventory stocking, consumer spending and the beginnings of capital spending are expected to underpin strong GDP reports for the first and second quarters. (more...)

Asset Allocation View, March 30, 2010

Asset and Market Survey
Economy - Robust recovery in US, but signs of deceleration elsewhere

The United States is now outperforming most other countries in its recovery from recession, and posting positive surprises across a wide range of economic indicators. Strong US retail sales could filter through to robust economic growth reports for the first and, possibly, the second quarters. (more....)